Financial Options

The big news this week will be on the inflation front and the related issue of the dollar which has been under increasing pressure the last few weeks. With the Export/Import Price Indexes showing signs of inflation in both categories, including but not limited to big spikes in oil import prices, there are plenty of indications that dollar denominated price inflation is rearing its ugly head at home and abroad. Tuesday the BLS will release the Producer Price Index, the key measure of domestic wholesale price inflation, and Wednesday the Consumer Price Index, the headline measure of domestic retail price inflation.

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With the week down to 4 days (no figures due out Friday ahead of the holiday weekend) and very little of substance earlier in the week, this week's drama is likely to come from news more than numbers.

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The upcoming week could be a volatile one, especially in Forex markets. The week starts with the Conference Board's report on euro zone Leading Indicators. With the European Central Bank's reluctance to match other central bank's levels of easing, this is not likely to inspire confidence in the euro, but any boost this gives to the dollar is likely to be short lived. The Treasury Department is making announcements or holding auctions for 2-year, 3-year, 5-year, 7-year and 10-year Treasury notes, 52-week T-bills and 30-year Treasury bonds this week, in addition to the normal T-bill auctions and topping it all off with the quarterly refunding announcement. Bottom line: the markets are going to get hit with solid numbers on hundreds of billions of dollars in Treasury borrowing. Top all that off with an announcement Wednesday from the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee and Wednesday is likely to see lots of action in many markets.

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The week ahead could be a rough one on a number of fronts. Higher energy prices, likely down news on housing and not much positive on the horizon to offset the negatives.

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The coming week promises plenty of volatility with what's likely to be a mixed bag of economic news that's sure to rattle markets. After a solid run that brought the market up more than 15% in a month, that volatility is likely to trend to the downside.

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