Financial Options

Economic indicators may not be the initial focus of markets Monday, as Wall Street is liable to focus heavily on early reports of a 3% increase in Black Friday retail sales, though anecdotal reports of good sales were already coming in early enough to influence Friday's trading and solidify an up week. With some economists seeing a fundamental bottom for the US stock market around Dow 6,500-7,000, a level we haven't yet reached, and some technical analysts agreeing, there may be some profit taking early in the week in spite of the good sales figures and that's where incoming economic indicators may play a role. Look to the weekly Redbook retail index (Tuesday) as a possible market mover the next several weeks as retail's big season hits high gear.

With the Big Three automakers in such serious trouble that their daily financials vary more with their prospect of a government handout than any real economic fundamentals, the November auto sales (Tuesday) are likely to make little splash, except that the expected bad news may strengthen the Big Three's case in D.C.

That leaves the big news for the week coming Friday, with the Labor Department job report. The precursor numbers start Wednesday with the ADP Employment Report, Challenger Job Cut Report and the Help Wanted Online Data Series from the Conference Board, followed by the Monster Employment Index and Jobless Claims on Thursday.

There's some central bank activity this week, with the Fed's Beige Book out Thursday. Though the Fed's moves are seeming less relevant, the Beige Book is still a good narrative description of the national economy district by district, great for getting the big picture in small chunks. Thursday the Bank of England and European Central Bank will announce monetary policy decisions and interest rate cuts are likely.

*See more information on the Financial Roadmap series here. Earnings reports are companies of interest, NOT recommendations.