What if we added a whole oil producing state next year?
The Energy Information Administration is predicting big increases in US oil production in 2009. In fact, according to This Week in Petroleum one new platform in the Gulf of Mexico, the Thunder Horse platform, «would rank as the fourth largest producing State» in the country. Thunder Horse will produce more oil than Louisiana or Oklahoma. Three new platforms combined will produce more oil than all the states combined except Alaska, Texas and California.
The weekly petroleum status report showed increases in inventories for crude oil, gasoline and distillate fuels, but a large enough drop in propane/propylene and kerosene type jet fuel supplies to cause a drop in total petroleum inventories. On the demand side, product supplied is 4.9% below the comparable period last year, with jet fuel use still down by double digits at 12.4%. Refinery activity was down substantially with refineries operating at 84.1% capacity and crude inputs down 415,000 barrels/day.
US Petroleum Supplies and Refining At a Glance
- Total Petroleum Inventories: Down 2.7 million barrels
- Crude Oil Inventories: Up 500,000 barrels
- Gasoline Inventories: Up 1.3 million barrels
- Distillate Fuels Inventories: Up 2.9 million barrels
- Propane/propylene inventories: Down 2.3 million barrels
- Refinery Crude Inputs: 14.6 million barrels/day
- Change: Down 415,000 barrels/day
- Refinery Activity: 84.1%
US Petroleum Demand At a Glance
Compared to Same 4-Week Period Last Year
- Total Products Supplied: Down 4.9%
- Gasoline: Down 2.7%
- Distillate Fuel: Down 4.5%
- Jet Fuel: Down 12.4%
Oil Report and This Week in Petroleum December 17 2008 [PDF]
Full current report with data tables [PDF]
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1 comment
#1. Rob Viglione, 1 year and 7 months ago
Tom, this paints a bleak picture for oil prices. Any guesses at current equilibrium pricing? I've been burned with crude futures and oil index options this year...haven't touched the commodity in awhile. Looking for a new entry point, but my guess is that the global economy-the US in particular-will continue to shed assets and debt, driving asset and commodity prices down across the board. The only potential saving grace for oil is that its USD denominated and could act as some basic proxy for inflation as we grow our money supply. Still, that's probably a weaker effect than general use demand.
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