Financial Options

The week ahead brings several economic indicator releases that investors will want to pay attention to. With generally positive reports of retail sales for the first weekend of the Christmas shopping season and indications of a 12% rise in Visa sales from 2004 for the Friday after Thanksgiving, inflation fears could resurface and with them speculation of continued Fed rate hikes.

Monday, the National Association of Realtors is scheduled to release Existing Home Sales for October. With speculation that there may or may not be a «real estate bubble» in housing and that it may or may not be bursting, this is a particularly closely watched indicator. Also Monday, the International Council of Shopping Centers releases Factory Outlet Sales for October and Metro Area Department Store Sales for October, both of which may be seen as precursors of Christmas shopping season sales.

Tuesday, the Commerce Department will release Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales, which like the Existing Home Sales are closely watched for signs of bubbles bursting. Perhaps the most important figure released this week will be Tuesday's release of the Consumer Confidence Index by the Conference Board. This figure may give the first indication of whether relief in gas prices and late winter weather sparing home heating bills have restored consumer's faith sufficiently to push retailers and manufacturers into the black. Consumer confidence plummeted in September and fell another 2.5% in October with the Expecations Index reaching 69.5 and the overall Consumer Confidence at 85 (with a base of 100 set in 1985).

Wednesday sees the release of 3rd quarter GDP and Corporate Profits from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Also Wednesday the Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book, which provides the major guidance for Federal Open Market Committee actions on interest rates.

The Department of Energy's release of petroleum inventories Wednesday and natural gas inventories could make waves. Oil inventories fell unexpectedly two weeks ago and rose last week, but by a relatively small amount. A large inventory increase or further increases in distillate stockpiles, which include heating oil, could mean further price relief, but even a small decrease in inventories would likely mean price increases.

Thursday, look for Personal Consumption and Income figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Chain Store Sales for November, Construction Spending for October from the Census Bureau and Motor Vehicle Sales for November. Also Thursday, the Institute for Supply Management (formerly National Association of Purchasing Managers) releases its manufacturing survey for November.

Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Employment Situation Report for November.

U.S. Retail Sales Little Changed Friday, Close to '04 Record

In a separate statement issued today, Visa USA said retail spending on Visa credit and debit cards rose 12 percent yesterday, led by purchases of electronics and computers.

Spending increased to $2.2 billion, Visa USA said. Purchases of personal entertainment devices, including Microsoft Corp.'s XBox and Apple Computer Inc.'s iPod as well as computers, accounted for 19 percent of all retail sales volume. Visa USA is a unit of Visa International Inc., the world's largest credit card company.